Chapter ( 9 )

After the conventions between Israeli secretary of state and those of Egypt and Jordon , and the meetings took place in Belgium between all the Arab secretaries of state and the European commissioner, bedsides Amr Moses contacts in New York aiming to survive the Arabic negotiations and the Arabs seem to appear as if they were prepared for peace . what was the outcome ? the statement issued by the International Quartet was like a cold shower on the Arabs' heads . It only demanded the Palestinians to stop violence and to set free the Israeli kidnapped soldier . Israel is demanded nothing but to avoid civilian victims . the statement of the Egyptian foreign affairs described the issues of the Quartet as they were not balanced and exposed the Quartet credibility ; as a neutral part , to questioning , but since when was the Quartet neutral ? . It seems that as if the International Society had realized that the Arabic initiative died the moment it was born .

On the other hand , it seems that the imbalanced resolution issued by the Security Council concerning the International Tribunal in the case of El Hariri's assassination under the seventh term of the charter cope with the inferior view to the positions of the Arab countries . the interference in their sovereignty is allowable . Unless the Lebanese agreed together to set up the court according to their wills, America and France will hurry up to issue an obligatory resolution to establish the international tribune where the super powers would pose their conditions with the team America and France support regardless the other team , this will lead to a civil war . the Arabic diplomacy in front of these successive developments stand puzzled after a vigilance didn't last long . As a result of this , the role of the general secretary of the United Nations is retreating much , more than before . Pan Ki Mon is only satisfied with the international problems ; utilizing the seventh chapter of the charter , to punish the Arabs regardless the other countries . As long as the internal fighting in Palestine between Hamas and Fath , and the Arabic division is prevailing in the Arabic area the external interference will be stronger than any Arabic movements or initiatives .

We can see now the Palestinian territories are burning , the blood is shed and the future is committing suicide under the feet of the warriors of Fath and Hamas . Do they see that the way to liberate their occupied lands and build the future country ? If it isn't why they insist on fighting each other ? No sooner had Hamas won the legislative election and established the government , than the clash between the two organizations began to take several forms until it turned into shooting fire . the militias of the two parties are about 8000 warriors . they fight each other more ferociously than they fight Israel . the victims of the Palestinian – Palestinian fight are much more than those who were killed by Israeli fire . Now , it is clear that , after all the attempts to cease fire between the two parties failed .

Both are in favor of their own interests . If Fath organization is secular , yet it desires peace with Israel and chose to accept two countries , and cooperate with the international and regional powers to put this choice into practice through negotiations. Whereas Hamas adopts the policy of the armed resistance . It refuses the declaration of accepting Oslo treatments signed by the Liberation Organization .Also , Hamas refuses the admission of Israel . Hamas depends on the reference of the Divine , and the Absolute , while Fath goes back to humane reference , It fights to protect their peaceful project , , the influence they enjoyed long and sovereignty in the Palestinian street . Hamas tries to gather between resistance and authority . they work on sabotaging the peace process and most of all to control Gaza absolutely and through away Fath so as to set up their Islamic province .

There goals come across with the Syrian and Iranian ones . Syria built up their strategy on connecting between achieving peace in all routes till the day won't to stand alone against Israel and the " occupied Golan " As for Iran they planned to catch the Palestinian paper together with the Lebanese and Iraqi paper in their conflict with the US.

The disasters the Palestinian citizen is increasing , every morning ; starts his day exposing to the Palestinian and Israeli fires . If he looks around he won't find but the effects of the stifling besiege which began with the arrival of Hamas . Around the clock , he will hear nothing but news about Israeli assault , assassinations of prominent leaders and kidnapping ministers and parliamentary representatives and destruction of foundations . If he thinks in damning Israel , he will remember the Palestinian fighting and a lot of victims .

Cairo is the big brother who tries to compromise between the two parts . Egypt is obliged to launch initiative after another despite the deep doubts of the possibilities of its success . the basic significance behind these initiatives as the following:

-- This crisis is bound to blow up again in the near future , may be it will be more brutal than before -----( and this is what really happened -------)

It is proved that we can't solve the crisis in the frame of security only , but it must be solved politically as well .

It is necessary to modify the law of election to permit the rest of the other political currents and the powers of the civilized society and the independents ; to have a better chance to formulate the 3rd middle current representing liberalism and democracy . It is better to do this election soon ; new presidency and new parliament . to restore the balance of the different political map .

Finishing of the sovereignty of the warriors and princes of the militias . To adjust the reversed positions , to enable policy to direct the gun and not vice versa .

It is necessary to change all the leaders of the security systems to work politics . And to submit all these systems to the command of the home front minister who is chosen on the basis of professional efficiency . Not affiliated to a certain sect or ethnic .

It is proved that , it is quite difficult , and impossible to succeed in gathering simultaneously between the authority and the armed resistance . Arafat himself tried that but he lost his life as a price to this attempt.

The oppressed majority of the Palestinians is the only front which pays the price of this unfair economical boycott . And the popular solidarity reached a critical situation , to state of recession , phenomena of traveling abroad , from the part of the Palestinians . the Palestinian society is being penetrated before the enemy and social deviations .

The international society is obliged to set up a Palestinian state and develop the Palestinian society in all fields .

In Israel , the military people expect war on the Syrian front , unless Israel responds to the quest of president Bashar El Assad , he assured years ago his offer to resume the Israeli – Syrian negotiation about the destiny of " Golan "without precedent conditions . He said if Israel suspects his true intentions , he asked it to try rather than precedent refusal . The Israeli newspapers wrote reports daily about military movements on the Israeli side aiming at reinforcing the forces situations ; rebuilding the air defense network against the Israeli planes and the arrival of short and middle range missiles from Iran to strengthen the Syrian military if they decide to stimulate the situation on the Golan front ; to push Israel to accept negotiations .Likewise , the Israeli newspapers talked about the change took place to the situation of the American administration which used to ask Israel to refuse resuming negotiation with Syria because Damascus still supports smuggling the Arab warriors through their borders to Iraq , and thy don't want to stop interfering in Lebanon after the pull out of the Syrian forces .

For all these reasons the Israeli prime minister Ulmert refused the Syrian offer arrogantly ; asking Damascus to drive away all the Palestinian opposing organizations and close their offices in Damascus . there were Israeli talks about fundamental change happened in the American situation dropping the objections of the American administration to resume negotiation between Syria and Israel . the newspapers persuaded the Israeli prime minister Ulmert to respond to the Syrian offer , since it is not logical for Israel to go on refusing the direct dialogue with the Syrians ; while Israel; used to claim that the Arabs refuse to negotiate with them .

The Israelis may think that ; resuming negotiation on the Syrian route , may cause pressure on the Palestinians and may give Israel , in the same time , flexibility of movement and transport from the Palestinian route to the Syrian one , but that reveals the Israeli wish of wasting time because Ulmert will remain till the end of his term unable to take any resolution.

But what will the Lebanon do after the international law ? although the international tribune of the crime of El Hariri's assassination inside the security council was expected , after it was impossible to carry it out in the parliament with the background of the refusal of the opposition just to discuss the court project under the government of El Saniora and putting conditions to put up a national union government . However , the reaction inside the opposition team reflects a real embarrassment and was silent until they agreed together what they will do towards the court project . the question which poses itself what will the court find out in the mission of busting the truth of El Hariri's assassination, in the shade of the great conviction of the majority ; particularly 14 March Current that the decree of accusation in this crime will touch the Syrian regime right away ? therefore , El Saniora was careful to say ; after the convention of the security council that the tribune isn't against any country ; meaning Syria but it searches for justice . Syria in their turn hurried to assure that the court something they have nothing to do with . No doubt that the voting inside the Security council cause a future crisis between the majority team and the state of Quart which refused to vote . Soon a campaign of attack began on Quart 's attitude as strange and biased to the opposition . Berry ; the president of the parliament , can't help criticizing the French and the British delegates inside the Council , he said both the American and British delegates obliged him not to approve the international court before the Lebanese parliament . that means the Lebanese opposition won't accept the reality imposed by the Security council . All the procedures point out that tough days are awaiting Lebanon . the home crisis will grow and the majority powers will realize this hot fix and they will declare soon about a national reconciliation initiative but its success will depend on the acceptance of the opposition ; …. Or in other words Syria ------ all the strings are in the hands of Syria . And all the strings of Syria are in the hands of Iran . It is the treasury of Syria , Hezbollah and Hamas .

The first reaction in Beirut was the reopening of Saint George road ; the place where El Hariri was assassinated . the statements of the French ambassador in Lebanon ; Bernard Emiet reflected a supporting situation to El Saniora's government and demanding the Tribunal to accelerate . He considered the 1707 resolution as a comprehensive one for the international Society for the sake of the truth and the hope of the whole world about 1595 ; the resolution of the United Nation . can the committee for the investigation of El Hariri's assassination ; presided by Perameritz complete its work peacefully ?. to our disappointment , he resigned from the case ? why ? although , he intensified that the Security Council performed a clear exhortation to those who want to root out the stability of this country ; he went on saying that Syria has to reconsider reading this resolution well and the situation of the octave group is very clear because it invokes the members of the international society to cooperate with the Tribunal .

What is happening in Lebanon now has a bad effect on the Lebanese economy which embodies a unique one depending on the external flows and services which focus on the tourist activity not for entertainment or purchasing but for investment in estates and projects besides funds and banks . It is a society of business and commerce whose base and sometimes branches is in Lebanon , but its extensions are in the Gulf countries and along the world map in African ,European and Latin America countries since the Lebanese were great immigrants long ago and they settled in these continents . According to the theory of the economy of services the break- out of the Lebanese civil war in 70th was unjustified as well as the Israeli occupation to the south for years and the Israeli assault to Lebanon , and going to Beirut to besiege , sabotaging and bombing it with missiles and planes --- was not understood , too , the conflict with the Israeli occupation to the south was Lebanese , in addition , the resistance to the Israeli invasion in 2006 and the defeat was sheer Lebanese , although the sources of finance and support was coming from abroad , but Lebanon was a space arena to all the world funds . these financial flows reflect the policy paradoxes and the undeclared mysterious accounts on the surface which is the real controller in the routes and directions of the events . as if what is said publicly is only a play of absurd which is performed for entertainment , maneuver and deceit . As if the international local and regional system is adopting hidden and mysterious policies contrasting completely with what is said in public . So , what is said about the sources of financing , the weapons and the support to Christian militias as well as the Sunnis , the Shiite , the Dorsi and other sectarian militias prove that the hidden policies go in a way different to that policies in public . these things are still performed . Now , as if the president and the prime minister were out of the line of legality and it can't be understood but through the mentality of the " war lords " who are able to achieve the spoils , the interests and the huge profits in all circumstances .

This interprets what is said about the numerous factions which utilize the name of Islam as a façade .they are computerized factions through international regional intelligent systems . As for the positions of Lebanon , it is suffering simultaneously . the consequences of the destructive social and economical results of the Israeli aggression and from sharp political crisis menacing its stability and union . Lebanon may lose the chance of the utmost utility ; first from the exceptional International Arabic support which can't be available but for the conference of Paris – 3 It is approximately 8 billion dollars ; taking the form of loans and donations .

Second , from the possibilities of Arabic financial surpluses to the Lebanese market cherishing investment in different services and production sectors . to cure the problems of deficit and the general debt .

All the political powers in Lebanon welcomed the invitation of France to hold a convention unofficially aiming at the coming back of dialogue to reach a compromising solution to the successive crisis which faced Lebanon . the importance of this invitation interprets the historical location which France fills in the hearts of all the Lebanese ; the " passionate mother " . Moreover , the trend of the French administration in the time of the new president Sarcosi , to open his heart to all the Lebanese political powers after the frustration of the French relations with the Lebanese opposition after the assassination of El Hariri . in this outline there were negotiations between French foreign affairs officials and a representative in the Lebanese parliament representing Hezbollah , in addition to similar negotiations with El Emad Own ; the leader of the free national current that shows the serious direction of the new French trend .

Bush , now is in a critical situation in his explosive battle with Iran due the stifling besiege imposed on him from inside and outside to prevent him from being rash and committing the same disastrous errors in Iraq . This besiege from democratic , republican congress , the American people , and the international society . All warn him not to involve in a war with Iran , and from missing a chance of constructive negotiations with it to rescue him from his dilemma in Iraq and Afghanistan and to solve the problem of Lebanon and Palestine . Many of solutions seem to be in America's hands ; while Bush stands bewildered and hesitant to take the decision : -- escalating his economical and military pressure and hot verbal confrontation , sometimes resorting to diplomacy and elasticity , other times , sending two carriers , warships and submarines to the Gulf , deploying Patriot missiles and F 16 carrying nuclear heads , then assuring that he has no intentions to conquer Iran , accusing it of producing nuke weapons , then doubting in the American intelligence information for fear of being wrong data as they were in Iraq ., assuring his commitment of the diplomatic curriculum , but he doesn't deny beating the Iranian establishments , demanding the American forces to kill and arrest the Iranians inside Iraq , then persisting on his readiness to start negotiations with Iran on a high level . An American official admits that bush takes a defense position . that points out the anxiety of the hazard confrontation .

On the other side, Iran seems in a powerful position , more daring and more challenging . Iran utilizes and invests American weakness , they kept extending and profounding their intelligence , economical; and military influence along the whole area , but that outruns their nuclear menace . their supporters spread all over Iraq where the Shiite militias . It is said that there are 132, 000 agents working for Iran there , some of them work in important governmental jobs , we find them in Lebanon , that is Hezbollah which was set up under the Iranian sponsorship after the Israeli conquest in 1982 . In Palestine ; Hamas militias ---- in Afghanistan where Iran provides their insurgents with money , weapons and hi – tech explosives . In Yemen , in Saada , where El Hothi is fighting the governmental forces . As a result of the Iranian powerful effect to those factions , the American soldiers in the area seem as if they were hostages to Iran .

It is believed that the White House itself is penetrated with Iranian agents . America bears alone the failure in the area and the responsibility in escalating the Iranian influence . America wants to impose democracy on the whole world It connects only to the country which can achieve its sovereignty on the sensitive areas in the world and that within the next century . Basically Israel , then Iraq , as for the Arab world , it aims at controlling the petroleum sources . they will have to import oil mainly by the end of 2015 . they try to modulate the Iraqi Oil Law to lean on the participation in profits systems PSA between Iraq and the companies which will extract from the Iraqi lands; this system was refused by Venezuela and Russia . this is quite an evidence that America wants to control the country which has the biggest oil reserves so as to grasp the area of the Arabic Gulf . as for the world American strategic plans , they are shaping a strategy whose goal is a try to return to the atmosphere of the cold war . they extend a missile wall in Poland and Czech to attract the attention again to the race of armament ; to remind the eastern European countries that the Soviet – western hostility is still existing .

If America has the absolute international power alone , without any rival on the international arena that will lead to the military relaxation, particularly after they failed in converting the international terrorism into international hazard ; menacing the international stability , then , afterwards , the world found out that the focus of terrorism grows in the areas trodden by the US to eradicate the roots of terrorism , particularly in Iraq, Afghanistan , Palestine and Lebanon .So , the military relaxation will reduce the American weapons export to the areas of tension and tumult . they will create limited regional conflicts so that unrests may break out , that will be a fertile field to attract weapons . the US found in the market of the Arabian Gulf good opportunity to marketing gigantic deals -- as the Dove deal with Saudi Arabia – and with other Gulf countries which feared the deployment of the Shiite Iranian influence in this area . Hence , we see the escalation and reinforce the accent of supporting the Sunnis against the increase of the Shiite influence .that is why Lebanon turned out to be an experiment lab to set fires of sectarians between the Sunnis and the Shiite . now they couldn’t control Iraq since the Shiite influence got victorious over the Sunnis . As a matter of fact , it is difficult to predict what will happen in Iraq after they skipped over demanding the government of El Malki to achieve a serious national reconciliation with the Sunnis and issuing a decree to share out the oil revenue equally between the Sunnis , the Shiite , and the Kurdish , besides , changing the constitution in favor of a central government . It is claimed that the Malki government is too weak to achieve the goals and there is no otherwise , that means, the consecration of controlling the coalition of the Shiite and the Kurdish on the destiny of Iraq and breaking their promise of preserving the union of Iraq because the ultimate result of this policy is the division of Iraq into three states and making the circumstances possible for the continuation of the civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiite to define the destiny of Iraq when the American force release slightly their existence in Iraq they will keep only a limited fighting force chasing el Qaeda and try to besiege the blast cars operation . they will leave ;as well, forces to train the new Iraqi army .

The American will justify their betrayal to the Sunnis of Iraq blaming the Iraqi people and bearing the responsibility of what is happening in Iraq , that is expected with the allegation that they accomplished their duties in toppling Saddam while the Iraq failed in doing their role and in coming to compromise between the three powers, the Shiite ,the Sunnis and the Kurdish . the change occurred concerning the failure of the new plan by increasing the numbers of the American forces to achieve the security of Baghdad after the escalation of violence and the blast cars to the climax as it reflects the collapse of Bush’s popularity to the bottom to the point that most of the Americans considered him the worst president ever ruled the U.S. this new policy of Bush may lead to an approach between the Republicans and the Democratic who insist on pulling the fighting forces of the US by the start of 2008 . But they will leave the destiny of Iraq to the unknown , particularly if the civil war broke out after the withdrawal of the American forces. All the clashing forces are planning . the Shiite militias , the Sunnis and El Quaeda . they will leave the middle east area in great danger . the American interests will be at risk unless Washington carry out a comprehensive reconciliation with Iran ; enabling it to achieve most of its regional goals . Perhaps , America and Israel are doing huge air maneuvers ; expecting to launch a joint military operation against the Iranian nuclear foundations , meanwhile ; threatening , hitting all the American military bases in the area .

Since the invasion of Iraq ., the Americans considered the area of the Kurdish an oasis of security and stability , contrarily , to what is taking place in the rest of Iraq ; war , sabotage , and killing . they talked about this region as a model of the new Middle East they are planning to set up . they hope this Kurdish region – which enjoys autonomy ; having an independent government and a president : Messod El Berzani -- ; a flag and an army -- it will be the selected place to build up two American military bases in the north of Iraq , where the American forces can camp after their pull out from the Iraqi cities , particularly , the Kurdish welcome the American military existence , they don’t refuse to host the two military bases . But that won’t last for good , because the Kurdish region is passing through a state of intensive tension as a result of the tension between Iraqi Kurdistan and its strong neighbor : Turkey , which is always mobilizing their forces on the borders of the Kurdish region and destroying the sites of the Labor Kurdish Party ; which are raiding Turkey from within Iraq , Particularly , with the increase of the Turkish fears that Kurdistan will be a point of attraction ; encouraging the Kurdish of Turkey to resume action of violence , hoping to get a sort of autonomy like that of the Iraqi Kurdish . That will formulate a progressive step on the road of the old Kurdish dream ; to put up an independent Kurdish state in this region, including the Kurdish of Turkey .Iraq , Syria and Iran . what increases the determination of the Turkish to eradicate the bases of the Labor Kurdish Party inside the Kurdistan of Iraq , the menaces verbed by El Berzani his intention to transport the battle inside Turkey and encouraging the Turkish Kurdish to demand their right of autonomy ; this assuring the Turkish that the existence of Iraqi Kurdistan and enjoying independence can be a factor of a menace to the Turkish national security , which they can’t compromise with , particularly , the region of Iraqi Kurdistan is looking forward to make the city of Karkok—inhabited by the Turkmen – a capital . Because of the Americans , being too busy in operations to secure Iraq ; moreover they don’t have enough forces to stand in the north of Iraq . the fears of north Iraqi Kurdish increase that Washington may give a permission to Turkey ; their forces to cross the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan and destroy the sites of Labor Kurdish Party ,--- and that what happened really . the military Americans are afraid lest they find themselves in a difficult choice ; their powerful Turkey in NATO and their new friends ; Iraqi Kurdish ; as , they found themselves before at fire target between the Sunnis and the Shiite in the rest of Iraq . All these , were difficult problems which assured to the Americans public opinion , how Iraq invasion operation was just an adventure from the side of the new conservatives and a jump in the unknown .